Kenshin Kawakami or Kris Medlen?

Who should be the fifth starter and who should be in the bullpen, Kris Medlen or Kenshin Kawakami?

Obviously, this is a question that needs an answer because Jair Jurrjens is coming back, and he is coming back soon. Jurrjens has two more rehab starts before he is set to come back off the DL if everything goes accordingly. With him coming off the DL, one of Kawakami or Medlen will have to be moved to the bullpen with Christhian Martinez or Craig Kimbrel being optioned to triple-A.

The argument goes deeper than simply who has pitched better as a starter. If that were the only factor, I think it would be easy to say Medlen should start as he has had much better results on the mound than Kenshin.

One factor is that Medlen is probably a better reliever as well, and with the Braves lacking experienced relievers in critical roles, Bobby would certainly rather go to Medlen in those situations than Kawakami.

Another factor is a potential innings limit. Medlen’s career high in innings came last year when he threw 120.1, and this year he is already half way there at 61.1. If he were to start the rest of the season, which would be about 19 outings, with an average of six innings per start, Medlen will have thrown 175 innings. That’s a pretty big increase. It would be even bigger if he averages more than six innings, and I’m not positive it is one that the Braves are willing to take on.

With that said, Kawakami, of course, hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as his 0-9 record would suggest. He’s pitched well as of late but overall for the year he has been a bit worse than a league average starter. You can live with that from your fifth starter, you don’t need five Tommy Hanson’s or C.C. Sabathia’s to get to the playoffs. Kenshin’s FIP and ERA are actually identical right now and by most modern standards, he has thrown the ball similarly to how he did last year.

The problem comes with Kris Medlen being much better than league average. Medlen strikes out more batters than Kenshin, walks less, lets much less batters on base, and lets less runs across. More or less, everything he does on the mound he does better than Kenshin.

This is what got me.

Kawakami does not do anything particularly well on the mound. He doesn’t get a great deal of ground balls. He doesn’t strike a great deal of batters out. He doesn’t avoid the walk as well as a lot of other starters. His split finger (3.8w) and curveball (2.2w) are solid pitches but his fastball has been awful (-8.8w) this year.

Medlen, on the other hand, has impeccable control, and outside of the game in Arizona against a home run hitting offense, he doesn’t allow many home runs. He throws his curveball (-0.3w) 9% of the time, and the fastball (2.5w) and changeup (3.8w) combination which are thrown the other 91% are both very effective pitches.

Simply put, this team would be much better off with Medlen in the rotation. His fastball and changeup combination are lethal and he can go through a lineup multiple times with success. With Kenshin’s limited skill set on the mound, I cannot say the same for him. Some games he has solid outings and gets out of trouble, but for the most part he gets hit rather hard when he is on the mound compared to Medlen.

With Kawakami in the bullpen, it could move Kimbrel into the role Medlen would have assumed. Medlen and Kimbrel manning the starting role and a middle relief option is better than Kawakami and Medlen in those two positions.

For the argument about the innings limit, if Medlen is put back into relief he will probably only throw at maximum 60 more innings. With Medlen obviously capable of being a starter in the majors, the long term goal should be to have him in the rotation. That should start next year and since he is vastly more inexpensive than Derek Lowe or Kawakami, one should be traded so that room is made for Kris. If he is to start next year, he will have ran into a similar problem in terms of innings. He will have to be limited due to throwing a low amount of innings the previous year compared to how many he would throw with 32 starts. Jair Jurrjens (+45 innings in ’08 from ’07), and Tommy Hanson (+65 innings in ’09 from ’08) saw big jumps as well, so hopefully the Braves realize that Medlen can tough through the increased amount of innings unscathed. Despite Jair seeing some injuries, I have trouble directing them towards an increased amount of innings from two seasons prior, although it is indeed a possibility.

Simply put, the Braves would be a better team now and for the future with Medlen in the rotation. He is a more well-rounded pitcher than Kawakami, and I have faith in that remaining the case for the long term.

Jesse Chavez Sent Down To Make Room for Chris Resop

Jesse Chavez, the reliever with the 7.33 ERA and the 5.04 FIP, has been sent down from Atlanta to make room for Chris Resop.

Resop saw a great deal of success as a starter at Gwinnett, pitching to a sub-2.00 ERA and nearly a K per inning. Resop will be a reliever for the Braves and until Jair Jurrjens comes back he will likely serve as a spot starter if needed.

Chavez probably never should have made the roster to begin with after an awful spring. He surely did not make the decision to keep him with the big club look wise and perhaps his greatest personal feat as a Brave is that he somehow managed to stay on the roster until mid-June.

Left Side Of Braves Bullpen May Be Best In Game

As Ken Rosenthal reports, the Braves are stocked deep in pitching, to no surprise of any Braves follower.

What he mentions in the article that caught my eye was that he sees the Braves’ left handed side of the bullpen as potentially the best in the game.

The left side of the ‘pen — Eric O’Flaherty, Jonny Venters, Billy Wagner — might be the best in the game.

Over the past two seasons, Bobby Cox has gone away from his traditional approach of keeping one and possibly two left-handed relievers on the roster. With Billy Wagner entrenched as the closer. This was a similar case at the start of last year with Mike Gonzalez closing games and Boone Logan and O’Flaherty as middle relievers.

Lately, Jonny Venters role has increased due to Takashi Saito’s injury and the lack of production from other middle relievers. On top of Saito being injured, Peter Moylan has performed poorly as of late (8.81 ERA in 7 appearances spanning 3.1 innings). This has put added pressure on Venters to produce and, aside from a few bumpy outings, he has certainly ran with the increased role.

Here are the stats from all three lefties this year. The top number is their overall numbers and the bottom is vs. left handed hitters.

Billy Wagner: 4-0, 26 G, 25.1 IP, 1.42 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, 13.50 K/9, 3.91 BB/9, 11 SV

vs. LH: 6.1 IP, 0 ER, 3.61 xFIP, 9.95 K/9, 4.26 BB/9

Eric O’Flaherty: 2-1, 32 G, 25.2 IP, 2.10 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 7.71 K/9, 3.16 BB/9

vs. LH: 13.1 IP, 2 ER, 2.28 xFIP, 9.45 K/9, 1.35 BB/9

Jonny Venters: 2-0, 23 G, 27.2 IP, 0.98 ERA, 3.57 xFIP, 10.08 K/9, 5.20 BB/9

vs. LH: 16.1 IP, 0 ER, 2.86 xFIP, 12.71 K/9, 3.18 BB/9

Both Venters and O’Flaherty have been much better vs. lefties than against righties. Wagner has had better numbers vs. right handers but he has a much smaller sample size. Wagner pitches strictly the final inning whereas Venters and O’Flaherty get brought in to pitch in certain situations. Obviously, that will allow O’Flaherty and Venters to pitch to more lefties where Wagner will be forced to face whomever is due up in the ninth.

With an entirely right-handed rotation, teams usually stack as many left-hand options as reasonably possible against the Braves. This means later in games guys like Venters and O’Flaherty will get their opportunities and, when they have gotten, them they have certainly produced. Between the three lefty relievers they have thrown a combined 36 innings and allowed just 2 earned runs.

The combined ERA against left-handed hitters of Billy Wagner, Jonny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty is 0.52.

It would take a great deal of research to find out if their are any comparable left-handed reliever groups in the league, but at best they can only match what these three have done.

Chipper Jones Leaning Towards Retirement at Conclusion of Season

According to David O’Brien of the AJC, Chipper Jones is “likely leaning to retirement after 2010.” In my opinion, this is actually a pretty overblown statement. He is currently slumping, but if he gets out of it I would imagine he speaks out once again about possibly playing in 2011.

Jones is in the midst of a tough season, posting just 13 extra base hits in 208 at bats. He has still walked a decent amount, but he must understand that his swing just is not the same.

Bobby Cox retiring was on thing, but Chipper Jones leaving the franchise along side him is another. Many of us, including myself, grew up watching Chipper Jones manning third base and batting third for the Atlanta Braves and none of us will forget the type of player Chipper Jones has been. He has been the face of the Atlanta Braves offense since the mid-90′s.

One thing this does, is it gives Chipper the chance to get into the Hall-of-Fame with another former Braves great, John Smoltz. Ken Griffey Jr., who retired earlier this month, will also be included in the class. The Braves current closer , Billy Wagner, announced his retirement earlier this season as well and may also make the Hall-of-Fame but may have trouble getting in on his first try.

Chipper will also retire alongside Bobby Cox. In an age of free agency and coaching firings occurring rapidly, you almost never see a player play his entire career under one coach. Bobby and Chipper will always be linked together, and may be the last pair to accomplish this feat.

Jones will retire with a batting average over .300, an on base percentage over .400, and a slugging percentage over .500, an accomplishment only achieved by 14 other players in Major Leauge history. He won’t quite get to 500 home runs, but he has an MVP and a batting title to his name as well as more walks than strike outs.

This is a sad day for Braves nation, and hopefully he rescinds his remarks and waits until the end of the season to decide. He may be able to pick his bat back up by then, but then again he may continue to struggle. Regardless of whether this is the final decision, it is the decision for now. As a Braves follower as I’m sure you are if you are reading this, you must always remember and respect what Larry Wayne Jones Jr. meant to the Atlanta Braves.

Down at the Farm, Minor League Report

Here are some numbers and my opinions on a few notable prospects and their performance thus far.

Chris Resop, RHP, AAA
73.1 IP, 81 K, 27 BB, 1.84 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Resop killed it at Gwinnett this year and is getting the call up to the major league club today. He was a starter at Gwinnett but will be in the bullpen in Atlanta. Hopefully, this doesn’t alter his performance.

Michael Dunn, LHP, AAA
29.1 IP, 39 K, 12 BB, 0.61 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 2 ER.

That’s a pretty dominant year so far. If not for Venters and O’Flaherty performing so well, Dunn would surely already be on the major league roster.

Christian Bethancourt, C, low-A
192 PA, .242/.265/.317, 2 HR, 8 2B, 6 BB, 23 K, 1 SB

Bethancourt was coming off a solid season at Danville which saw him post a .819 OPS. Due to his solid season many had him as a top ten prospect in the system. This has been a very disappointing season, but he has time to turn it around. It’s unfortunate to see him struggle so much at Rome.

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, high-A
69.1 IP, 66 K, 9 BB, 2.34 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1 HR allowed.

Those were Vizcaino’s numbers at Rome before his promotion to high-A. He has only thrown 4 innings since then and, if included, it would skew how dominant he was at Rome. He obviously deserved the promotion and he should pick it back up in his next few starts at Myrtle Beach

Chris Masters, LHP, low-A
62.1 IP, 60 K, 18 BB, 1.88 ERA, 0.99 WHIP

Masters just landed on the DL with a left elbow strain which is never good news. He’s had an incredible season and just found out that he made the SAL All-Star team before he hit the disabled list. You can only hope that it is minor and that he will return as soon as he is eligible.

Cory Rasmus, RHP, low-A
51.0 IP, 46 K, 15 BB, 3.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Cory is the brother of Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus. He has started 7 of his 14 appearances this season. He’s definitely impressed and his K/BB ratio is just above 3.00, which is great to see from a pitching prospect.

Jordan Schafer, CF, AAA
106 PA, .235/.314/.301, 1 3B, 2 2B, 7 SB, 4 CS.

Schafer almost got the call when McLouth was disabled, but thankfully, Omar Infante had some injury problems as well and Brandon Hicks was recalled. Jordan is not close to ready and despite performing well at both Rome and Mississippi in his short rehab stints, he has been pretty terrible at Gwinnett. He obviously needs more time and should spend the majority of the year, if not the entire year, in the minors.