Atlanta Braves’ Infield Defense Will Be Tested in 2010

Javier Vazquez struck out 239 batters in 2010, second in the National League. Vazquez actually struck out more batters than the number of grounders he forced, 237.

Javier was the definition of a big-time strikeout pitcher last year, and this takes a lot of pressure off a defense.

The man replacing him in the rotation this year, Tim Hudson, is a notorious ground ball pitcher. Hudson has had four seasons in which he forced 400 or more ground balls, and his season high for strikeouts with the Braves is 141.

In addition to Hudson’s low strikeout totals, he is also third on the active list on home runs per nine innings, at .717, and he is 39th on the active list for walks per nine at 2.8.

In Hudson’s three full seasons with the Braves, he finished in the top seven in ground ball percentage each year. He is and always has been a contact pitcher; this should not be news to anyone.

Needless to say, the defense will have a bit more responsibility this year with Vazquez in New York and Hudson on the mound.

Hudson is not the only contact pitcher on the team either. The stress on the defense with Derek Lowe, second highest ground ball percentage in ’09, and Jair Jurrjens, who posted the seventh highest ground ball percentage in ’08, will be great this year.

There is a very good chance that three Atlanta starters who should pitch right around 200 innings finish in the top 15 in ground ball percentage this year. That should lead to a very active infield, probably the most active in the league.

The problem with this is that the Atlanta Braves’ infield features a 38-year-old at third base, a first baseman with six major league games on that side of the infield, and a second baseman with a -15.2 UZR/150 after 101 games at that position.

Chipper Jones had a solid defensive year in 2008 but was dismal in the field last year, as he finished with a -11.6 UZR/150 and a career-low fielding percentage of .930. Expecting him to find the fountain of youth and improve his defense this year would be a reach. He will likely be pretty bad defensively this year again.

Troy Glaus has always had rather soft hands, and he has not been too far from an average third baseman defensively throughout his career. The transition to first base has gone well so far, but the Braves will not have the luxury of having a top-notch glove like Casey Kotchman’s or Mark Teixeira’s to start the season out this year.

Martin Prado has played at least 45 games at three infield positions throughout his career, but his defense at second base has been his worst. He has been increasingly better though, as he finished with just a -3.6 UZR/150 last year, which is not too far off being an average defensive second basemen.

Yunel Escobar is the strength of this defense. His career UZR/150 is almost dead average at -0.1, but his arm strength and glove work have been phenomenal since his arrival in Atlanta. He will have the opportunity this season to prove that he is the best defensive shortstop in the league as the Braves will likely force the most grounders in 2010.

With Jurrjens, Lowe, and Hudson being such ground ball threats, these players need to seriously step their games up if they want to have a successful season. Swapping 237 grounders and 239 strikeouts for roughly 400 grounders and 130 strikeouts will seriously test this infield throughout the season. Do you think they pass the test?

Why Yunel Escobar is The Braves Version of Derek Jeter

The shortstop position has been ever changing since Cal Ripken Jr. first stepped on a major league field.

The position that used to have only the smallest players and lightest hitters is now filled with tall and powerful baseball players who use their size to extend their defensive range rather than pure speed.

The trend of big, filled-out shortstops has developed so much that it now has branches of styles stemming from it.

There is the Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki mold that hits for serious power while still maintaining speed and good on-base skills. There is the J.J. Hardy or Stephen Drew type that plays top of the line defense while still being able to knock one out of the park.

Then there is the Derek Jeter and Yunel Escobar type of shortstop. This is the type of shortstop that the defensive metrics for some reason hate, and that can almost always be counted on for the clutch hit that their team needs.

The comparisons between Jeter and Escobar are more relevant than one would immediately realize.

Many consider Derek Jeter to be one of the top clutch hitters of our generation, as he has come through with huge playoff hit after huge playoff hit. Yunel Escobar may be the next generation’s version of Derek Jeter if the Braves are able to get to the postseason as the Yankees have during Jeter’s years.

Anyone wonder which shortstop had the highest OPS with runners in scoring position last season? Yunel Escobar at 1.065. Behind Escobar was NL batting champion Hanley Ramirez.

Escobar has had a knack for hitting well in RBI situations since his call-up to the major leagues. He sports a career line of .337/.424/.526 (AVG, OBP, SLG) with men on second or third. Escobar has 29 career home runs, with 11 of them coming with RISP.

When it comes time to score runs, the Braves would rather have nobody else at the plate than Escobar since he has been on their roster. The same can be said for Derek Jeter and the Yankees since 1996.

The comparison continues with their defensive skills. If you watched the Braves’ last season, then you know that Escobar is one of the top defensive shortstops in the game. In fact, if you want to check out some of his highlights, you can do so from this Braves.com link.

For some reason, the defensive metrics had Escobar at a -1.1 UZR/150 (most respected defensive metric at this moment), and his career UZR/150 at shortstop is an average -0.1.

This sounds eerily similar to the big shortstop in New York. Many statistics have claimed that Jeter is one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game, and his -16.7 UZR/150 in 2007 seemed to get most baseball people to agree with that.

Jeter’s career -4.6 UZR/150 would signal poor defense, but for some reason everyone who watches the Yankees regularly (and I do—I live in Queens) seems to think Jeter’s defense is one of the reasons for their success since his arrival.

Defensive metrics are not foolproof, and they still need work to prove how great or poor of a defensive player one truly is. The plays Escobar makes force a watcher to scream “WOW” on a regular basis. Jeter plays defense smoothly. He makes hard plays look so easy that many do not understand the difficulty in his backhand jump throws or spinning hurls to first base.

As someone who values statistics much more than the average person, it takes more than what you see on FanGraphs or Baseball-Reference to realize how good these two players actually are.

Having a player that you can rely on in clutch situations from a traditionally weak hitting position is something that Yankees fans do not take for granted, and it should not be something Braves fans take for granted either. Yunel Escobar has the ability to be a superstar and a top shortstop in the major leagues, and if the Braves make the playoffs this year, Escobar will be one of the reasons.

Player Preview: Yunel Escobar

Over the past two seasons Escobar has been one of the Braves most consistent players. He does not have any statistic that is overly impressive offensively or defensively, but he does have decent to good numbers in many different areas. His rookie season’s line of .326/.385/.451 was likely due to a limited number of at bats as he was brought up half way through the season. It would have been very difficult to match those numbers in either of the past two years. He has however proven to be a valuable shortstop both in the field and at the plate. His value to this team is shown in his 140 OPS+ in wins and his 58 OPS+ in losses throughout his career.

Last summer Yunel amassed over 600 plate appearances and hit 14 homers with 26 doubles as he was moved to a run producing spot in the lineup mid way through the season. Yunel is big for a shortstop but he does not have a typical home run swing. Despite his compact swing, he is starting to hit less ground balls with more line drives and fly balls which is a good combination for a player with his size. His GB/FB ratio has dropped each season from 2.44 to 2.35 and to last seasons’ 1.68. Yunel’s double play woes will soon begin to diminish if he continues this trend. Another trend that will likely increase as that number continues to shrink are his extra base hit numbers. He reached his career high in both extra base hits with 42 and isoSLG at .136. Yunel’s defense last season was superb despite a UZR/150 of -1.1. He had a few game saving defensive plays and you could make an entire highlight reel of outstanding plays he made at shortstop last season.

James and CHONE project his home run numbers to drop, but I beg to differ. As previously stated a rise in his line drive and fly ball percentage should lead to more home runs. In most cases, a rise in fly ball percentage leads to a lower average but as Yunel increased his amount of line drives and limited his amount of ground balls he average managed to raise his batting average last season to a very solid .299. He walked and struck out a bit less, likely due to Pendleton’s aggressive approach as a hitting coach. The walks are not alarmingly lower than the season before and expecting Yunel to walk roughly 50 times would be an accurate projection.

The lineup structure has yet to be determined and given the injury history of the Braves corner infielders it is likely that Yunel sees scattered at bats throughout the lineup. It would be fitting for him to be placed in a run producing role as he has posted a 136 OPS+ throughout his career with men in scoring position. Although his on the field actions are sometimes to the dismay of the fans and management, the fire and emotion he brings to the club have been a welcome addition for the past three seasons.