Monday Podcast: Rays Series and Players Outperforming Expectations

There will be more on Glaus, Hinske, Hudson, and Wagner tomorrow on Talking Chop.

Recapping Braves’ Numbers Over the Past 7 Days

The Braves have gone 4-3 over their past seven games. They split a four game series with the Dodgers and finished off a sweep of the Phillies. In addition, they have traded wins with the Diamondbacks over the past two days.

Here are the hot and cold players over the past week of play:

Hot:

Troy Glaus: .296/.387/.667, 2 HR, 4 2B, 5 RBI, 3 R

Omar Infante: .387/.441/.419, 1 2B, 4 RBI, 5 R, 1 SB

Martin Prado: .357/.379/.500, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 5 R

Jonny Venters: 4.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 9 K, 0 BB, 3 H, 1 W, 1 SV

Billy Wagner: 3.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 H, 2 SV

Eric O’Flaherty: 2.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1 K, 0 BB, 1 H

Cold:

Kenshin Kawakami: 6.1 IP, 7.11 ERA, 4 K, 3 BB, 9 H, 1 L

Derek Lowe: 12.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 9 K, 3 BB, 14 H, 1 W, 1 L

Jason Heyward: .172/.333/.172, 0 XBH, 2 RBI, 3 R, 1 CS

Nate McLouth: .188/.316/.250, 1 2B, 1 RBI, 3 R

Jesse Chavez: 1.1 IP, 6.75 ERA, 0 K, 1 BB, 1 H, 1 L

Jason Heyward is the least usual suspect on the cold list. Some, or possibly most, of Jason’s troubles could be attributed to an injured thumb. Derek Lowe had a great start to the week but an awful outing in the series opener against the Diamondbacks made him crossover to the cold list. Chavez continues to pitch terribly and McLouth has yet to turn it on at the plate. Kenshin had a rough start against the Dodgers but can hopefully rebound tonight and give the Braves at least a tie in the series in Arizona.

The three lefties in the bullpen have been great in relief this past week. Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty, and Billy Wagner have combined for 10.1 scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts, a win, and three saves. Offensively, Troy Glaus has started to accumulate some more doubles as I projected. However, I thought the doubles would come at the cost of some homers, but he was able to maintain the deep ball stroke as well over the past seven days. His double in the opener of the Diamondback series would have been gone in nearly every ballpark. Omar Infante played well in Chipper’s absence and again last night as Prado rested his injured hand. When Martin played over the past week, he played well as he has all season long.

Over the next seven days, the Braves finish off two more games against the Diamondbacks, play three against the Twins, and finish with a game against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Braves get to use their DH later this week against the Twins, so it will be interesting to see who the decide to use as their extra hitter.

Streaking Braves Sweep Phillies, Extend NL East Lead to 2.5 Games

Thanks to the powerful stroke of Troy Glaus, a surprisingly dominant outing from Derek Lowe, and a huge clutch hit from Omar Infante, the Atlanta Braves have taken the division lead and are beginning to pull ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies.

Troy Glaus hit two three run homers in back-to-back days over the series’ first two games, and Omar Infante had a clutch base hit with men on first and second and two out in the bottom of the eighth inning earlier today to close out a three game sweep of the Phillies.

Infante only entered the game today because of Chipper Jones’ injured ring finger. Chipper is said to be day-to-day, but thankfully Infante was able to step in and produce in Jones’ absence.

Omar pushed ahead the game-winning run, but Derek Lowe’s performance is the real story from today’s game. Lowe pitched eight great innings while allowing just one run, one intentional walk, and six hits. This was easily Derek’s best outing of the year and it could not have come at a better time or against a better opponent. Billy Wagner closed out the game, earning his ninth save as he allowed just one baserunner while facing the heart of the Philadelphia lineup.

The Braves are now winners of eight straight games. They are 23-8 since their nine game losing streak at the end of April, and 13-2 in their last 15 games.

This has been a dominant stretch for the Braves in Bobby Cox’s final season as they closed out a perfect 6-0 homestand and improved their major league best home record to 19-6.

The Braves problems have come on the road (12-16), where they will play there next 11 games. Championship teams win wherever they play, so if Atlanta wants to prove they can withstand the difficulties that come with success,they will need to have a respectable road trip against some difficult opponents in the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Twins.

The Phillies will play better throughout the year, but as I said earlier last week, the Braves were in a great position to take over the NL East lead and they did just that in incredible fashion as they swept the two time defending National League Champions.

Atlanta Braves’ Infield Defense Will Be Tested in 2010

Javier Vazquez struck out 239 batters in 2010, second in the National League. Vazquez actually struck out more batters than the number of grounders he forced, 237.

Javier was the definition of a big-time strikeout pitcher last year, and this takes a lot of pressure off a defense.

The man replacing him in the rotation this year, Tim Hudson, is a notorious ground ball pitcher. Hudson has had four seasons in which he forced 400 or more ground balls, and his season high for strikeouts with the Braves is 141.

In addition to Hudson’s low strikeout totals, he is also third on the active list on home runs per nine innings, at .717, and he is 39th on the active list for walks per nine at 2.8.

In Hudson’s three full seasons with the Braves, he finished in the top seven in ground ball percentage each year. He is and always has been a contact pitcher; this should not be news to anyone.

Needless to say, the defense will have a bit more responsibility this year with Vazquez in New York and Hudson on the mound.

Hudson is not the only contact pitcher on the team either. The stress on the defense with Derek Lowe, second highest ground ball percentage in ’09, and Jair Jurrjens, who posted the seventh highest ground ball percentage in ’08, will be great this year.

There is a very good chance that three Atlanta starters who should pitch right around 200 innings finish in the top 15 in ground ball percentage this year. That should lead to a very active infield, probably the most active in the league.

The problem with this is that the Atlanta Braves’ infield features a 38-year-old at third base, a first baseman with six major league games on that side of the infield, and a second baseman with a -15.2 UZR/150 after 101 games at that position.

Chipper Jones had a solid defensive year in 2008 but was dismal in the field last year, as he finished with a -11.6 UZR/150 and a career-low fielding percentage of .930. Expecting him to find the fountain of youth and improve his defense this year would be a reach. He will likely be pretty bad defensively this year again.

Troy Glaus has always had rather soft hands, and he has not been too far from an average third baseman defensively throughout his career. The transition to first base has gone well so far, but the Braves will not have the luxury of having a top-notch glove like Casey Kotchman’s or Mark Teixeira’s to start the season out this year.

Martin Prado has played at least 45 games at three infield positions throughout his career, but his defense at second base has been his worst. He has been increasingly better though, as he finished with just a -3.6 UZR/150 last year, which is not too far off being an average defensive second basemen.

Yunel Escobar is the strength of this defense. His career UZR/150 is almost dead average at -0.1, but his arm strength and glove work have been phenomenal since his arrival in Atlanta. He will have the opportunity this season to prove that he is the best defensive shortstop in the league as the Braves will likely force the most grounders in 2010.

With Jurrjens, Lowe, and Hudson being such ground ball threats, these players need to seriously step their games up if they want to have a successful season. Swapping 237 grounders and 239 strikeouts for roughly 400 grounders and 130 strikeouts will seriously test this infield throughout the season. Do you think they pass the test?

The 6 Keys To Sending Bobby Cox Out On Top

This will be Bobby Cox’s 19 consecutive season as the Braves manager. Prior to this run, he was the general manager from 1986-1990, and he had previously managed the ball club for three seasons from 1978-1981.

Bobby Cox is possibly the most influential person in Braves’ history with Hank Aaron and John Schuerholz having pretty solid arguments themselves.

Cox has announced that this will be his last season, and you can bet that Chipper Jones will make sure this team plays every single game with the passion and fire that Cox deserves in his final summer as the manager.

The Braves took a major step forward last season as they won 86 games, their highest total since 2005 when they last won the division. In order for the Braves to send Bobby Cox out on top they need a few things to happen, and they are far from guarantees.

With that said, the talent on this roster is absolutely enough to get into post season baseball and the arms in the rotation are strong enough to carry a team through a short series.

Here are the six keys to sending Bobby Cox out on top, with his second World Series title as the Atlanta Braves’ manager.

Chipper Jones Bouncing Back

Chipper Jones is the most important hitter on this roster and he hits in the most important spot in the lineup. Chipper is a first ballot Hall of Famer and he needs to produce numbers closer to his career average in order for this offense to succeed.

Chipper does not need to have an MVP season or win the batting title for this offense to be good, but they do need him to give the team 20+ homers and a good on base percentage.

If Chipper is able to stay semi-healthy, play in 130+ games, and be productive in those games to the tune of a .290/.405/.485 triple slash line with 20 or more homers then this offense will score enough runs to support the strong starting staff.

There are enough decent to solid bats in the lineup to help Chipper out, but his production must improve for this team to have a chance to win a title.

Troy Glaus Remaining Relatively Healthy

As Jayson Stark mentioned earlier this week, the Braves are the only team in the league with a cleanup hitter and a closer who played less than 20 games last season.

Troy Glaus is the right handed power bat that the Braves have been searching for, but his health remains an issue. Glaus had shoulder surgery and missed nearly all of the 2009 season and has played 149 games only three times in the past seven seasons. He played in 91, 58, 115, and 14 in the other four seasons.

When Glaus plays, he is extremely productive and very powerful. From 2005-2008 Glaus averaged 35 home runs per 162 games played. If he plays 140 games this year, expecting around 27-33 home runs is absolutely attainable. The problem is that the if in the previous statement is far from a guarantee.

Glaus’ health is the reason that he was able to be had for so cheap, and if this offense wants to have a big right handed threat in the middle of the lineup then Glaus needs to be able to stay on the field.

Billy Wagner’s and Takashi Saito’s Arms Holding Up

The Braves two biggest acquisitions in the bullpen this offseason have a combined age of 78, and one appeared in only 15 games last season.

Billy Wagner was signed to close and Takashi Saito was signed to be a set-up man along side of Peter Moylan. The Braves bullpen was outstanding last year with the righty/lefty combo of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. In order for the bullpen to be as successful as last season, the elder statesmen of the back end must stay healthy.

Wagner has had no setbacks since his Tommy John surgery so another torn ligament to his left elbow is extremely doubtful. However, at the age of 38 (39 on July 25th) injuries can occur to nearly any body part as a professional athlete.

Saito has pitched at least 56 games in all but one season, but again, at age 40 anything can happen to a body or arm of an athlete. Saito was used in much less strenuous situations last year and his ability to handle high stress innings this season will be crucial to the bullpen’s success.

Both of them need to stay healthy. It is not as if the Braves do not have the ability to have others fill in as a closer or set up man. The problem comes when the middle relievers and Moylan have to move up and minor leaguers are brought up to fill the void in middle relief. The Braves have depth in the bullpen, but if Wagner and Saito remain healthy and productive they could have one of the top bullpens in the National League.

Jason Heyward Having a Productive Rookie Season

The top prospect in baseball, Jason Heyward, needs to be productive this season. The Braves have suffered from lack of production from their corner outfield spots (except from Matt Diaz, but he only plays against lefties) for a number of seasons.

Good offenses strive on the production they receive from the corner outfield and infield spots. The Braves need Heyward to have a solid season and start to become the player that everyone knows he will eventually be.

They do not need 30 home runs and a .330 average from Heyward, but a solid .360 on base percentage with 15-20 home runs will be a great improvement from what they have had in the seasons past. Heyward could be the spark this team needs to make and go deep into the playoffs.

Derek Lowe Becoming the Pitcher They Signed

Derek Lowe has completely changed is throwing motion. He has stated that he has changed his entire delivery from top to bottom.

“Arm angle, arm path, stride, knee, head, shoulder, elbow, height to my arm, we can go on all day long,” Lowe said. “There’s isn’t one thing I did last year, not one thing, which probably a lot of people are happy to hear.”

This new motion can help the Braves become one of the top teams in the NL. With Hanson, Hudson, and Jurrjens getting all of the love as they rightfully deserve, Lowe needs to prove that he is worth his $60 million contract he received before the 2009 season.

If they get the type of season that Lowe has the ability to have, then the Braves rotation will undoubtedly be one of the top two rotations in the National League along with the San Francisco Giants. The rotation is the Braves’ biggest strength, and a bounce back year for Lowe could put them over the top.

Eric Hinske Producing In Chipper’s and Glaus’ Absence

Lets face it, Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus will miss a good amount of games this season. They are both past their primes and both have had numerous injuries throughout their careers, especially as of late.

I mentioned before that Glaus needs to remain relatively healthy, and that Chipper needs to bounce back in order for this team to win. But even if they do produce, they will most likely suffer from nagging injuries throughout the season and be forced to miss some games.

Over the past few years the Braves have used middle infield production with the likes of Omar Infante and Martin Prado to fill the void left by Chipper Jones when he is injured. This season they have someone with power and a true corner infielder, Eric Hinske.

Hinske hit 20 home runs only two seasons ago in 2008. He has also been lucky enough to make the past three World Series with the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees respectively.

When Chipper or Glaus get injured the Braves need Hinske to mitigate the loss by hitting for power and getting on base. If Hinske can do this, and also prove to be an adequate pinch hitter and corner outfield option then the Braves offense will be very good.

Hinske will not light up the world, but Bobby Cox and the rest of the Braves nation are hoping that Hinske is able to make the World Series for the fourth straight time. He may not be the reason for getting to meaningful October baseball, but he can certainly help by producing in Chipper’s and Glaus’ absence.