Player Preview: Tommy Hanson

2009 will be remembered as the year Tommy Hanson made his Atlanta Braves debut. The most exciting day on the Braves calendar in 2009 was the day Tommy took the mound against the Milwaukee Brewers and showed the skill set that so many fans and scouts had raved about for years. Although his results in that game were mixed, he showed that he could strikeout some of the best hitters in baseball and pitch deep into games despite not having a great performance. Tommy ended up allowing 7 runs, 6 of which were earned through 6 innings on that June 7th afternoon. This was only the start to a magnificent rookie year by the future Braves ace.

Before the regular season began, many writers and columnists had Hanson winning the award for best rookie in the National League. He came up short of the award behind two other National League East rookies, Chris Coghlan and J.A. Happ. Although he did not win the award, one would have to assume that Tommy will have the best career of the three and will likely have the best career of any first year player from 2009.

Tommy closed 2009 with a 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and a stellar ERA+ of 142. These numbers would be difficult to duplicate next season, and many projections have his production dropping. He did, however, have a fairly even BABIP at .280 which is right around his career minor league average. Tommy will likely see a rise in his K/9 ratio and continue to progress as he learns more about the batters in the National League and the proper ways to approach the best hitters.

Hanson may very well end up having the best season of any Braves starter and although he will pitch next season at the ripe age of 23, he will be relied upon like a veteran. His ability to pitch deep into games and give quality starts on a regular basis will prove to be very valuable in keeping the bullpen fresh. With a full season of Tommy last year, the Braves may have made the playoffs. This season they will get that opportunity and nobody should expect Tommy to disappoint.

The Rotation

The one through four spots in the rotation are all but locked up before the season even begins. Derrek Lowe, Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, and Kenshin Kawakami will be in the rotation to begin the season. The only contention in the rotation this spring is for the fifth spot. The battle will be between Tom Glavine, Jorge Campillo, Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, Tommy Hanson, and James Parr.

Tom Glavine: Glavine, who was just recently resigned, appears to be the front runner heading into camp. I have plenty of doubts about Glavine’s ability and durability coming into this season. Hopefully the Braves do not give Glavine the spot and make him compete with the rest of the hopefuls. Glavine’s walk rate has risen each season and his K rate has dropped annually. These are not good signs and it is doubtful that these trends suddenly reverse.

Jorge Campillo:Campillo saw the most major league success amongst all the candidates last season. Jorge saw a lot of success in the first half as he posted a 3.02 ERA and a .660 OPS against. The second half saw different results as his ERA was rose to 5.40 and his OPS against in the second half was at an astronomical .844. This could be due to the fact that he had not pitched this many high stress innings against the world’s top competition, or it could be because many hitting coaches and hitters realized how to hit Campillo successfully. Campillo will most likely make the roster be it as a reliever or as a starter. He poses the biggest threat to Glavine as the season begins.

Charlie Morton: Morton had a very rough first 74 innings at the major league level. He was lit up for a 6.15 ERA and a 1.621 WHIP. Despite is troubles at the major league level, Morton was able to dominate AAA batters as he posted a 2.05 ERA and a .99 WHIP. Not all pitchers immediately see success at the major league level and I believe that Morton will eventually be a regular in some major league rotation. He has a chance this spring to win a spot out of camp, but he will have to show that he can major league hitters out with consistency.

Jo-Jo Reyes: Reyes, much like Morton, had plenty of success against AAA batters but struggled mightily against major league hitters. The difference is that this was not Reyes’ first taste of the majors as he had similar results in 2007. Reyes may be a pitcher who needs a change of scenery to succeed as his minor league numbers indicate that he can be a productive pitcher. This spring Jo-Jo has a lot to prove, and he will be in the back seat while attempting to nail down the fifth spot.

Tommy Hanson: Hanson is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. He had an outstanding 2008 as he progressed from high A ball to AA ball. He was very successful at both levels and after the season concluded won the Arizona Fall League MVP and was the first pitcher to ever receive this award. The front office has said that they will give Hanson a serious look to start the season in the rotation but I don’t see them adding him at the start of the season unless he greatly outproduces the competition. Hanson will most likely make his debut in 2009, but I do not believe he will start the season with the big club.

James Parr: The dark horse for the final spot in the rotation is James Parr. Parr started five games the Atlanta Braves last season and saw varying degrees success. He went six innings and did not let up a run in each of his first two starts but only pitched a total of 10.1 innings in his next three starts combined. The Braves however did win four of the five games he started. Parr saw success in Richmond last season as he was able to attain a 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP as he had his best season as a professional. Parr will have to seriously impress the coaches this spring if he wishes to make the team out of camp, and it is doubtful that he does. Parr does add some much needed depth to the rotation and may be one of the more reliable options out of the aforementioned pitchers.

Introducing Tommy Hanson

Tommy Hanson is being labeled as the next big pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. The last pitcher that the Braves have developed through their system and has gone on to succeed with the major league club was Kevin Milwood, who made his major league debut in 1997. A pitcher like Tommy Hanson is long overdue for a franchise who has been historically pitching rich.

Hanson is a 6″6 righty with a mid 90′s fastball, a hard breaking curve, and a change up that he can control extremely well. Tommy put his name on the Braves radar in his first season with the franchise in rookie ball at Danville. He threw 51.2 innings, struck out 56, let up 12 earned runs, and had a WHIP of .99. His FIP was a phenomenal 2.12. The following season he split time between Low A and High A ball where he saw similar success to start the season but in his 60 innings at High A ran into some control issues. Even with the uncharacteristic walks he was still striking out more than a batter per inning as he was able to get 64 strike outs. Since he had not dominated the league as he had the others, he was slated to start 2008 at High A ball instead of advancing to AA.

2008 was Tommy’s break out year as he had a .90 ERA in High A in 40 innings and was moved to AA, pitched a no hitter in his 9th start in AA, and won the Arizona Fall League’s MVP. Hanson was the first pitcher to ever win the Arizona Fall League MVP in its 14 year history.

In the AFL he pitched only 36.2 innings but was able to strike out 64 batters and allow only 13 hits and 10 walks. 23 base runners and 64 strikeouts against some of the top talent that has yet to reach the major leagues. The AFL is said to be a hitters league and for a pitcher who only had half a season at AA to dominate the way he has was literally unheard of, it had never happened before.

Tommy Hanson’s ceiling has yet to be determined. At this point with the success that he has had at every level it would not be far fetched to say that he may one day be a Cy Young Award winner. This season at some point, hopefully about a month or more into the season, he will get his first appearance with the Atlanta Braves. If Hanson can come up to the big club and experience the same success he has experienced throughout his professional career then the Braves chances to win in 2009 increase exponentially.