Monday Podcast: Rays Series and Players Outperforming Expectations

There will be more on Glaus, Hinske, Hudson, and Wagner tomorrow on Talking Chop.

The Tim Hudson Argument

Earlier today, I got into a bit of a debate on twitter with a fellow contributor to Braves Blast, Kent Covington. The debate was about how Tim Hudson has performed this season and how he will perform for the rest of the season.

Let me give you a bit of a backdrop on things I have learned since the summer of 2007, when I joined Braves Nation and started to understand baseball as I had never understood it before.

Over the past few years, I have taken akin to the newer stats which project performance into the future. I am heavy into fantasy sports and I will be attending business school for finance this fall. Much like the stock market, baseball players, and especially pitchers, can be giving off an image of success when they are actually doing poor. The same can be said for pitchers or hitters who have performed poorly — they may be ready to break out.

There are certain telling stats in baseball that point to a player turning his game around.

For instance, if a player’s average is very high and it seems like he is performing very well, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) may be abnormally high — which means that for some reason the balls he is hitting are landing more frequently than usual. More often than not, and I mean way more often than not, these numbers tend to balance out. This gives an owner of this player on a fantasy team the opportunity to trade their player, or “sell high.”

The same can be said in reverse for pitchers. Some pitchers who see success in terms of earned run average early in a season have very low BABIP, which points to them getting rather lucky in the placement of the ball coming off the opposition’s bat. Once the ball is hit, the pitcher can do nothing else. Sometimes the ball is roped right at the third basemen for an out and sometimes it bloops in front of the centerfielder for a hit. The BABIP stat measures how frequently the hit ball has landed, it shows how a pitcher has benefited or struggled from balls being hit either at fielders or in holes, something the pitcher has next to no bearing on.

Another way to judge a player’s future performance compared to their performance throughout the early parts of a season is when you compare their current numbers to their career averages. Certain years players will have better numbers in certain categories than others, but there are always reasons for that. These stats tend to come close to the career averages as time goes on, because it is very seldom a pitcher or hitter all of a sudden gets much better in a certain area without changing anything.

Occasionally, pitchers add pitches or change their frequency of certain pitches thrown, or hitters change approaches which will alter performance for the rest of their careers. With that said, those are the reasons for a player’s numbers changing, whether it be for better or for worse. When a player changes nothing, they usually end up with numbers closer to their career averages despite a hot or cold start to a season.

Now after explaining my tools, I will get into the debate me and Kent had on twitter. My point was that Tim Hudson needs to pitch better if he wants to maintain the level of success he has had to start the season (5-1, 2.24 ERA).

Tim currently has the highest ground ball percentage, the lowest line drive percentage, the highest walk per nine innings, the lowest strikeout per nine innings, and the lowest batting average on balls in play… in his entire career.

Here are the comparisons between his current stats and his career averages. Mind you, Tim is throwing most of his pitches at close to the same rate he has thrown them in his career, and close to the same speeds as well.

                Career            2010

GB%       59.0%           67.3%

LD%       18.2%           10.6%

BB/9        2.78              3.50

K/9          6.06              3.78

BABIP     .287               .222

What these statistics say is that he has gotten that 2.24 ERA more due to being lucky on the mound rather than throwing the ball particularly well.

Now, what exactly do I mean by “Tim Hudson has to pitch better?” Kent felt that I was saying if he does what he is currently doing, then he will continue his succes. I mean, that does make sense, doesn’t it?

What I mean is that if Tim Hudson throws the next 64.1 innings in the same manner he threw the past 64.1, then the hitters hits will start to fall and the runs will start coming in at a much higher rate.

Tim’s FIP is currently at 4.39 and his xFIP is at 4.52 (Typically, your ERA and FIP should be close). These are two sets of numbers that project how well a pitcher has thrown despite the fielders behind him. Hudson has been a product of the guys at the plate hitting the ball to the fielders and not through the holes.

Hudson needs to pitch better in the sense that he needs to strikeout more and walk less. His ground ball percentage will dip a bit, his line drive percentage will rise a bit, but if he starts to strike out and walk batters at the same rate in which he has throughout his career, he will continue to come out of games with victories and with a low earned run average.

Kent’s argument makes sense, but when attempting to project future performance, you must take into account the fact that Tim is not throwing the ball particularly well and the ground balls induced are more a product of the hitters not performing well than Tim pitching exceptionally. Tim has simply been getting rather lucky in where the hitters have hit the ball.

Hudson has always been a ground ball pitcher, and that is why his career FIP is a bit higher than his career ERA, but the split has never been this drastic. Hudson is fortunate to have had the level of success they have had considering how poorly he has actually thrown the ball in comparison to the rest of his career, but if he wants to maintain a similar level of success… he will have to pitch better than he has in the first third of this season.

Waking Up In First Place

The Atlanta Braves have not been in first place this late in the season since 2005, which is coincidentally — or maybe not — the last year the Braves won the division.

When this team was reeling in April with that unforgettable nine game losing streak, you would have been hard-pressed to find many who would believe that the Braves would be in first place by the start of June.

The Braves being in first place is a combination of superb play from the team themselves and a huge slump coming from the preseason favorite Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies closed out May with a 3-7 record over their past ten games whereas the Braves went 8-2, including the major’s longest winning streak with six straight victories.

Until San Diego’s blowout of the Mets, the Braves had the best run differential in the National League. Unfortunately, the Padres passed the Braves, but personally, I am not too upset that they pounded the Mets out as they surpassed us in terms of Pythagorean Record.

As they enter June, the Braves have a tough schedule in the coming weeks.

Atlanta plays Philadelphia for the remaining two games in this series tonight and tomorrow, then they fly out to Los Angeles for a three game set, then to Arizona for four, and close out the road trip in Minnesota for three. There are no off days from now until the end of that stretch. The Braves have struggled outside of Turner (12-16 in away games), so having a solid road trip will be a tough task that hopefully the Braves are up for.

Before they start the road trip, the Braves have a great opportunity to extend their NL East lead and put the Phillies in a bigger hole with Tim Hudson on the mound tonight and Derek Lowe facing off against Kyle Kendrick tomorrow.

Hudson has had solid numbers so far, but has been less effective than many believe. His 4.39 FIP compared to his 2.24 ERA says that he has gotten rather lucky, and if he wants to continue the success he has had this year, he will have to strike-out more and walk less.

Derek Lowe, on the other hand has had more success as of late (4.11 ERA in May), and has actually been a bit unlucky this year as his FIP stands at 4.47 while his ERA sits at 4.86. If Lowe pitches as he has, he should be in line for a lower ERA and more success in the general fan’s eyes in the near future.

Both of their performances will be key in extending the division league in the next two days, but regardless, this is not a must-win situation for either game. The Braves are in a great position and are playing very solid baseball as of late. Regardless of whether they win or lose both games, the Braves are playing well. And at the start of June, that means more than their current place in the standings.

This is a great time to be a Braves follower, and waking up in first place for the first time in June since 2005 at least shows that this is a better product than we have seen in the past few seasons. Hopefully, the Braves will be able start consecutive months in first place and bring the winning ways back to Atlanta. Those same winning ways we all grew accustom to for 14 straight seasons.

2008 Braves Rotation Projections

…posted by Ben Duronio

The story of the Braves rotation last season was Smoltz and Hudson with three huge question marks on the back end. Chuck James did well enough for the Braves to have an over .500 record in his starts. The others spot-fillers, Mark Redman, Kyle Davies, Lance Cormier, Anthony Lerew, and JoJo Reyes didn’t pitch well enough to say the same.

This season could be a completely different story with the current projected rotation. This rotation is much different than those of the past few seasons as it is lead by four veteran pitchers. In the past few seasons the rotation was reliant on young arms to provide effective innings, but this season they ask only that Jair Jurrjens does that task.

Expect Hudson to pitch similar to how he did last season. He should be very effective and could be in contention for post season awards. Smoltz has stated that he believes Hudson should pitch on opening day, so that’s why I have him as the number one starter entering the season.

Smoltz has shown no signs of pitching less effectively although he’s now into his 40′s. The many surgeries he’s had on his elbow are probably a reason for this. Smoltz should also pitch similar to last season as he is relieved of the pressure that he had last season. The Braves needed him to win nearly every time out in order to stay in the race for the NL East. This season he is going through spring training a bit differently so that he can keep his arm strong through September and October.

Age will effect Glavine and Hampton, they should pitch effectively but not quite what they did the last times they pitched in Braves uniforms. They will give us solid innings however and keep our bullpen fresh and keep us in games. Glavine was top 5 in the NL in quality starts last season and that is exactly what the Braves need backing their dual ace combo at the top of the rotation.

Jair Jurrjens is the lone young arm in this rotation entering the season. Injuries or bad performance will give Chuck James and JoJo Reyes opportunities but for the most part if Jurrjens pitches as well as he can, then he should see 25+ starts this season. Jurrjens has a power-arm and in his starts with Detroit last year during a playoff race he showed that he has the poise to be a starter in pressure filled situations. Jurrjens could end up being the third best starter in the rotation this season, and could be a future ace in this rotation as he’s only 22 years old.

The Braves rotation will be the difference in the team making the playoffs or not, as it has been for the past two seasons. If they do end up making the playoffs as the NL East champs or as the Wildcard, you have to feel pretty confident with a Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine rotation in a short 5 game series. This team is built as a playoff team; the only problem will be getting there.