Lowe Opening Day Starter, Not Staff Ace

Paul and Tom over at HotStove.com asked me if Derek Lowe, the newly appointed opening day starter, was the best pitcher on the Braves’ staff. Here is my answer and a link to the article.

The Braves are starting Lowe in the first game of the season to help him regain the confidence that he had to start last season. Through the first few months Lowe was exactly the pitcher they had hoped for but he fell off towards the end of the year. By naming Lowe the opening day starter there is no better way to put the trade fiasco from earlier this offseason in the past. Lowe is definitely not the best pitcher on the staff, but he is very consistent and if naming him the opening day starter makes Derek more comfortable and confident in his own abilities then this is a great decision.

http://www.hotstove.com/2010/03/braves-marlins-bloggers-respond-to-our-questions/

Is the Braves’ Rotation the Most Underrated in the Majors?

The guys over at www.HotStove.com asked Is the Braves’ Rotation the Most Underrated in the Majors? Below is my response and a link to the article.

The Braves’ rotation has gotten little love from the mainstream media despite having lead the league in starter’s ERA last season and the fact that they will have Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson in the rotation to start the year. The Javier Vasquez trade is the main reason for being so under the radar but one thing many do not realize is that Tim Hudson has markedly better career numbers than Vasquez does. Derek Lowe struggled at the end of last season and he should improve, as should Kenshin Kawakami after having a year of major league pitching under his belt. Hudson will have a hard time producing the numbers Vasquez did last year, but a rotation of Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, and Kenshin Kawakami is one of the deepest in the league without question. The Braves lack an all-star 1-2 punch like many of the other “sexy” picks for the league’s best rotation, but depth makes a rotation and the Braves definitely have under-rated pitching.

http://www.hotstove.com/2010/02/is-the-braves-rotation-the-most-underrated-in-the-majors/

Ranking the NL East’s Top 10 Starters http://bit.ly/dg3zId

On BleacherReport.com I ranked the top 10 starters in the NL East. Below is the introduction and link to the BleacherReport.com article.

One of the stories around baseball during the early parts of spring training has been Johan Santana claiming that he is still the top pitcher in the NL East despite the Phillies’ acquisition of Roy Halladay.

It is hard to argue with Santana’s confidence, but Halladay does make a very good case for top pitcher in the division as well. An intriguing question is, who comes after them?

There are great pitchers scattered throughout the NL East, from the big right-hander down in Florida, Josh Johnson, to the slender California kid of the Phillies, Cole Hamels.

The Braves pack a deep rotation, but ranking the top three in their rotation is a difficult task in itself with veteran Tim Hudson and young studs Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson at the helm.

This article will take a statistical analysis over the past few seasons, age, and projections for next season to rank the top 10 starters that the deep pitching of the NL East has to offer. Enjoy!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/350202-ranking-the-top-10-starters-in-the-nl-east

Player Preview: Jair Jurrjens

Two off seasons ago Edgar Renteria was traded for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. Jair was pretty solid in the minor leagues but was a bit of an unknown coming into the season. This turned out to be the second time in twenty years that Atlanta hosed the Tigers for a top notch pitcher. The Tigers definitely regret this trade as Renteria went on to play one season with limited success for Detroit while Atlanta has seen Jair turn into one of the top pitchers in the national league. On top of Jurrjens’ success, Hernandez, a highly ranked prospect, was flipped in a deal for centerfielder Nate McLouth. That trade has the potential to go down as one of the biggest steals the Braves have ever made. Jurrjens is the main reason why.

Jair had a breakout year in 2009. His ERA ranked fifth among all qualifying starters in the major leagues at 2.60, one of three Braves starters with an ERA under 3.00. Along with the low ERA, Jair also amassed 215 innings and had a .237 average against which was good for thirteenth in the NL. Jurrjens success improved partially due to luck, and I even projected him to have a dip in his performance during the second half of the season due to a low K/BB rate, a low BABIP, and high FIP for such a low ERA. However, Jair stayed on course and continued a spectacular year. He finished as one of the top pitchers in the NL and avoided a sophomore slump following his solid rookie season in which he was voted third in Rookie of the Year balloting.

This season the Braves are counting on Jurrjens to continue his progression and remain a stable force at the top of a stacked starting rotation. The Braves will be relying on Jair a bit more heavily as he has proven to be one of the top young pitchers in baseball. Most projections have his production dipping severely and putting up statistics similar to his rookie campaign. These projections are understandable as they presume his success last season was due to luck and not dominant pitching. While he might see a dip in his performance, I doubt it is as sever as Bill James and CHONE project. Keeping his ERA under 3.00 would be a very difficult task, but I project it being somewhere between 3.20 and 3.40 with his WHIP remaining around 1.20. Last season his strikeout rate dropped but so did his walk rate, and I expect that trend to continue as Jair matures as a pitcher.

Jurrjens has the poise, ability, and command to continue to be a top pitcher in the NL and I have already made the mistake of doubting him before. Expecting Jair to put up 2009 seasons every year would be Maddux like and should not be counted on by any pitcher. However, he is capable of being the best pitcher on this staff and this staff has the potential to be the best in the National League. The Braves have always been a team known for their strong pitching and with Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens under contract for at least four more seasons, you can expect that to remain the Braves niche.

Comparing Rosters

Spring Training will unveil a vastly different roster compared to that of the previous Spring Training’s and even compared to the roster to close out 2009. In this article I will compare and contrast the new players to the old.

Start of 2009

The lineup going into 2009 consisted of Casey Kotchman at first, Kelly Johnson at second, Garret Anderson in left, Jordan Schafer in center, and Jeff Francoeur in right. None of these players were very productive last season. The most Kotchman ever helped was in his trade for Adam LaRoche. Johnson had a down year and suffered from tendinitis in his wrist. Schafer started off hot and also succumbed to an injured wrist. Francoeur was exactly what everyone should have projected going into last season, bad. Anderson was the only player of the bunch that finished out the season with the Braves. He managed to hit 13 home runs but his OBP was barely above .300.

The only difference at the start of 2009 and the end of 2009 in the rotation was JoJo Reyes. JoJo started so that Tommy Hanson could get some more work in the minors and avoid becoming a “super two.” JoJo again proved that he is the epitome of a AAAA player.

The End of 2009

The lineup by seasons end had Kotchman replaced with LaRoche, Francoeur with Ryan Church, Schafer with McLouth, and Johnson with Prado. LaRoche was the best hitter the Braves had after the acquired him and was solid defensively. Church was decent as a Brave as his production was close to what his career numbers are aside from a dip in his power numbers. McLouth also performed similar to his career numbers but the Braves expected a little bit more out of him. Prado had an amazing year last year after taking the job from Johnson and he made Johnson expendable. As a Johnson supporter even I agreed with this move and second base is now Prado’s for the foreseeable future. The bench also consisted of Greg Norton and Reid Gorecki during the final days of August(Last days before roster expands.)

The rotation remained similar but added Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson. Hudson proved that he can still be a good pitcher despite his Tommy John surgery and Hanson was one of the top rookies and will be the future ace of the Atlanta Braves for many years.

The bullpen was headlined by Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano the entire season and both took turns as closer. Both relievers turned in very good seasons earning them type A classifications as free agents.

Start of 2010

The newest additions to the lineup going into Spring Training are Troy Glaus, Jason Heyward, Melky Cabrera, and Eric Hinske. Hinske and Cabrera are not expected to be regular starters but both have experience starting at multiple positions and in pressure scenarios. Glaus has been injury prone during the latter half of the decade and was an inexpensive signing. He will move to 1B this season and if healthy has potential to slug over .500 and hit 30 home runs. Jason Heyward is the Braves top prospect and BaseballAmerica.com’s #2 overall prospect. His minor league career showed that he has the athletic ability, maturity, and patience to become a great major league hitter. It is reasonable to expect a Tommy Hanson like performance out of Heyward in 2010.

The rotation lost its most productive starter of last season in Javier Vazquez, but the overall production from the starters should not suffer. Tim Hudson virtually replaces Vazquez and over the course of his career has been a better pitcher.

The bullpen lost its two most productive and prolific arms but replaced them with veterans Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner. Both are health risks and are well past their prime, however these are short term deals for experienced back end relievers.

What to expect

The lineup going into this season is better than the lineup going into last season. The rotation going into this season is better than the rotation going into last season solely based on Hanson starting for a full season. The bullpen should be similar to last and it is usually hard to project a bullpen because relievers are so sporadic on a year to year basis.

Overall the roster going into this season is better than the roster that started and ended the roster last season. If healthy, these facts state that it is reasonable to expect post season contention.