Kenshin Kawakami or Kris Medlen?

Who should be the fifth starter and who should be in the bullpen, Kris Medlen or Kenshin Kawakami?

Obviously, this is a question that needs an answer because Jair Jurrjens is coming back, and he is coming back soon. Jurrjens has two more rehab starts before he is set to come back off the DL if everything goes accordingly. With him coming off the DL, one of Kawakami or Medlen will have to be moved to the bullpen with Christhian Martinez or Craig Kimbrel being optioned to triple-A.

The argument goes deeper than simply who has pitched better as a starter. If that were the only factor, I think it would be easy to say Medlen should start as he has had much better results on the mound than Kenshin.

One factor is that Medlen is probably a better reliever as well, and with the Braves lacking experienced relievers in critical roles, Bobby would certainly rather go to Medlen in those situations than Kawakami.

Another factor is a potential innings limit. Medlen’s career high in innings came last year when he threw 120.1, and this year he is already half way there at 61.1. If he were to start the rest of the season, which would be about 19 outings, with an average of six innings per start, Medlen will have thrown 175 innings. That’s a pretty big increase. It would be even bigger if he averages more than six innings, and I’m not positive it is one that the Braves are willing to take on.

With that said, Kawakami, of course, hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as his 0-9 record would suggest. He’s pitched well as of late but overall for the year he has been a bit worse than a league average starter. You can live with that from your fifth starter, you don’t need five Tommy Hanson’s or C.C. Sabathia’s to get to the playoffs. Kenshin’s FIP and ERA are actually identical right now and by most modern standards, he has thrown the ball similarly to how he did last year.

The problem comes with Kris Medlen being much better than league average. Medlen strikes out more batters than Kenshin, walks less, lets much less batters on base, and lets less runs across. More or less, everything he does on the mound he does better than Kenshin.

This is what got me.

Kawakami does not do anything particularly well on the mound. He doesn’t get a great deal of ground balls. He doesn’t strike a great deal of batters out. He doesn’t avoid the walk as well as a lot of other starters. His split finger (3.8w) and curveball (2.2w) are solid pitches but his fastball has been awful (-8.8w) this year.

Medlen, on the other hand, has impeccable control, and outside of the game in Arizona against a home run hitting offense, he doesn’t allow many home runs. He throws his curveball (-0.3w) 9% of the time, and the fastball (2.5w) and changeup (3.8w) combination which are thrown the other 91% are both very effective pitches.

Simply put, this team would be much better off with Medlen in the rotation. His fastball and changeup combination are lethal and he can go through a lineup multiple times with success. With Kenshin’s limited skill set on the mound, I cannot say the same for him. Some games he has solid outings and gets out of trouble, but for the most part he gets hit rather hard when he is on the mound compared to Medlen.

With Kawakami in the bullpen, it could move Kimbrel into the role Medlen would have assumed. Medlen and Kimbrel manning the starting role and a middle relief option is better than Kawakami and Medlen in those two positions.

For the argument about the innings limit, if Medlen is put back into relief he will probably only throw at maximum 60 more innings. With Medlen obviously capable of being a starter in the majors, the long term goal should be to have him in the rotation. That should start next year and since he is vastly more inexpensive than Derek Lowe or Kawakami, one should be traded so that room is made for Kris. If he is to start next year, he will have ran into a similar problem in terms of innings. He will have to be limited due to throwing a low amount of innings the previous year compared to how many he would throw with 32 starts. Jair Jurrjens (+45 innings in ’08 from ’07), and Tommy Hanson (+65 innings in ’09 from ’08) saw big jumps as well, so hopefully the Braves realize that Medlen can tough through the increased amount of innings unscathed. Despite Jair seeing some injuries, I have trouble directing them towards an increased amount of innings from two seasons prior, although it is indeed a possibility.

Simply put, the Braves would be a better team now and for the future with Medlen in the rotation. He is a more well-rounded pitcher than Kawakami, and I have faith in that remaining the case for the long term.

Kawakami Scratched

Kenshin Kawakami was expected to start today but has been scratched due to a “tired right shoulder.” Injury bug is hitting the rotation quick. JoJo Reyes is going to be an important member of the rotation this year, hopefully his changeup is continually improving.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090319&content_id=4029286&vkey=news_atl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl&partnerId=rss_atl

The New Additions

The Atlanta Braves have now added Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe in consecutive days. These signings are coming off of the loss of Brave great and future Hall of Famer, John Smoltz. Frank Wren has made attempts at getting an ace throughout the off season as he attempted to trade for Jake Peavy and sign AJ Burnett. The Peavy talks ended with both teams in a stand still and the Yankees were able to outbid (fortunately in my opinion) the Braves for Burnett’s services. This left the Braves in a position to either build for the future or go and get a few innings eaters if they want to be competitive in 2009. In Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami the Braves have successfully fixed their rotation.

Kenshin Kawakami should serve as a back end starter who has tremendous upside. Kawakami is said to throw 6 different pitches and after watching Ken pitch you can see that he has a very nice straight fastball and a potentially knee buckling curve. Throughout the highlight real you will notice the opposing hitters pulling off of pitches which is a sign that he has great knowledge of how to keep hitters off balance. Kawakami will come into Spring Training as the #4 starter and will not have the same pressure that most Japanese pitchers have had when they cross the Pacific. In most cases the newcomers are expected to be aces or at least front line starters and this can be very tough for any pitcher just entering the major leagues.

Derek Lowe is now the ace of the Atlanta Braves. Since 1991 this has been a very well respected roll around the league as future Hall of Fame pitchers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz have been at the front of the Braves rotation and Tim Hudson has been in this roll the past few seasons. These are big shoes to fill, but it is very hard to find a more consistent pitcher than Derek Lowe since 2002. He has posted an ERA+ of over 100 in 6 of 7 seasons and has made 32 or more starts in every season since 2002. He will pitch this season at age 36 and has been signed to a 4 year deal that will give him the opportunity to pitch at age 40. With most pitchers this would be a concern but Lowe has shown consistency and durability throughout his career. If the Braves were willing to offer more years to AJ Burnett who was a great injury risk, then I must agree to give Lowe his 4th year even at age 40. Lowe is a great sinker ball pitcher who will remind many Braves fan of Tim Hudson who will be out until at least August if not the whole season. Dodger’s stadium and Turner Field are both stadiums where ground ball pitchers usually succeed, and with Lowe’s track record it is hard to believe that this would change.

The overall style of the Braves rotation is much different than it has been in the past few seasons. The Braves have had a very top heavy rotation since 2005 with a few stud aces and a rather poor back end. This rotation is full of workhorses with 4 starters who have the ability to go deep into games and pitch with consistency every single start.

The Braves now have Lowe, Vasquez, Jurrjens, and Kawakami for the next two seasons and Tommy Hanson expected to step into the rotation at some point in 2009. The Braves are now looking at a rotation that has something that they haven’t seen since the 14 straight division titles, consistency.