A Tale of First Inning Success

Over the Braves current nine game winning streak they have scored in each of the past eight games. The lone game they didn’t score in the first was in the streak’s opening game against the Florida Marlins.

Since the start of the streak, the Braves are outscoring their opponents 16-2 in the first inning. Martin Prado has scored in six of the eight games in which the Braves have scored in the first inning, and Jason Heyward has scored in both of the other two games.

The Braves are 16-4 since moving Martin Prado into the leadoff spot. Obviously, the move of getting Martin Prado batting first and Jason Heyward batting second was a wise decision and has lead to many first inning runs.

I’m currently at work or else I would expand on this idea a bit more, but hope you enjoyed the quick look at how great the Braves have been in the first inning over their nine game winning streak. By the way, the Braves currently have the largest division lead of any division in Major League Baseball.

Jason Heyward Wins Second Consecutive Rookie Of the Month Award

Jason Heyward was voted Rookie of the Month once again for the month of May, as reported by Dave O’Brien of the AJC on his twitter:

@ajcbraves Glaus NL player of month. Heyward NL rookie of month. Sweeps all around

Yep, Troy Glaus also won NL Player of the Month. I will be talking about Glaus’ May and his importance to the team’s surge on my podcast tomorrow night.

Here is his Jason Heyward’s May line:

.337 avg, .453 obp, .628 slg, 1.081 ops, 4 homers, 7 doubles, 3 triples, 19 rbi, 19 runs, 16 walks, and 3 stolen bases.

Heyward is off to one of the best starts for any 20 year old ever. As Dave Cameron of Fangraphs points out, the only players who have done this well at such a young age are Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Ted Williams, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, and Mickey Mantle. All of these players are Hall-of-Famers aside from Alex Rodriguez, who is well on his way to a Hall-of-Fame career despite performance enhancement usage.

Heyward has had a great first two months and at this point it would be a shock if he did not run away with the Rookie of the Year award. As I noted last week, not only is Jason in contention for the Rookie of the Year award, he is right there in the MVP award as well.

Jason’s dominance is certainly only a thing to come and as a player with such a combination of power, patience, and bat control, the sky is the limit for this youngster.

Is Jason Heyward the MVP of the NL Thus Far?

20-year-old rookie Jason Heyward is the National League leader in OPS (.991). This is not something that happens every year, and you don’t need me to tell you that Jason Heyward is an extremely special player. The question at hand is, do you consider Jason Heyward to be the NL MVP over the first two months of the season?

He is currently .001 point above Jason Werth and .003 points ahead of Josh Willingham, but he is the leader in OPS nonetheless.

As Dave O’Brien of the AJC (@ajcbraves) points out, Heyward is currently 1st in NL in OPS (.991), 3rd in slugging (.568), 2nd in OBP (.422), 6th in RBI (35), 7th in HR freq (16.2 AB).

In terms of wOBA (weighted On Base Average), a statistic which stresses more importance on on base percentage rather than slugging, Heyward (.429) is just behind Josh Willingham (.433). This is incredible for a rookie, and it also speaks to how great of a hitter Josh Willingham has been. I was pushing for the Braves to go after him the past two offseasons but to unfortunately it never happened. But that is besides the point.

When looking at the current MVP candidates, it is hard to distinguish between any of the top ten. There are, however, players who have been more valuable to their team than others. Let me explain.

Both Jason Werth, the league leader in extra base hits, and Josh Willingham are in lineups that have had very good production from other hitters as well. For Jason Heyward, he has been nearly the entire offense aside from Martin Prado and some others here and there. His ability to come through in the clutch (.400 batting with runners in scoring position) also ranks in the NL top ten.

The Braves are 1.5 games out of first place and without Jason Heyward, it is hard to imagine them being anywhere but the bottom of the division. I am not so sure that you can say the same about Jason Werth or Josh Willingham, but that is purely opinion.

When you look at the rest of the hitters in the NL, it really does seem as if Jason Heyward has been the most valuable to his team’s success.

Now when you consider that pitchers have the ability to win the award as well, Ubaldo Jimenez is certainly making a strong case for himself.

Jimenez is the league leader in wins, batting average against, WHIP, and ERA. These are some extremely impressive stats, especially when you consider that his main competitors for these categories are Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum, two Cy Young award winners.

In terms of straight production, Jimenez is obviously the more valuable player. However, pitchers seldom win the MVP award and many are against them winning the award at all.

You be the judge, who do you think the NL MVP is through the season’s first two months?

Prado, McCann, and Heyward Are Carrying the Braves Offense

Thus far into the season, the Braves have continued their offensive woes from the run challenged 2009 summer. Only Martin Prado, Brian McCann, and Jason Heyward have been better than league average.

For those three, they have been more than impressive, but the lack of production from the rest of the lineup is starting to be a concern. While nine games is not an appropriate sample size, the team should be hitting better than they currently are.

Lets take a look at the production of the three aforementioned players compared to the rest of the team.

Martin Prado – 43 plate appearances, .459/.524/.649, 1 home run, 4 doubles, 2 rbi, 8 runs – 12.35 RC/27

Brian McCann – 35 plate appearances, .346/.514/.692, 2 home runs, 3 doubles, 6 rbi, 8 runs – 14.73 RC/27

Jason Heyward – 39 plate appearances, .303/.410/.667, 3 home runs, 3 doubles, 12 rbi, 6 runs – 10.19 RC/27

Rest of Braves lineup – 248 plate appearances, .169/.226/.228, 2 home runs, 5 doubles, 24 rbi, 25 runs

The only other Brave besides Prado, McCann, and Heyward to have an OPS above .650 is Eric Hinske, and he only has nine plate appearances. The Braves are currently 4-3 and have won two series, but if they are unable to hit again this year and rely on only a strong starting staff, they will find themselves chasing the Phillies the entire season.

There is hope for this lineup.

Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, and Yunel Escobar should hit better than they currently are, and when McCann, Prado, and Heyward start to cool off, these hitters should start to heat up.

The lineup 1-8 is solid, with the exception of Melky Cabrera. He was expected to have a better season with the transition to the NL, but he does not look like anything close to a major league starter at this point. This is not just an evaluation of the past nine games, but rather of his entire career. His low on base percentage and limited power scream fourth outfielder.

The Braves can’t rely on these three hitters to do all of the work, and if they want to win these tough series against the Rockies, Phillies, and Mets, then they will need to get better production throughout the lineup to take the slack of off these three players.

Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg

Jason Heyward and Stephen Strasburg are the top two prospects on nearly every prospect ranking publication.

The two are labeled No. 1 and No. 1a compared to the rest of the prospect pool, and many scouts and executives have stated that they are absolute can’t-miss prospects.

So what puts these two so far ahead of the rest of the field?

Jason Heyward

Jason Heyward is a Georgia native playing for his favorite franchise and has all of the natural gifts a great outfielder could have. He has great height at 6’4″ and great size, as he weighs 240 lbs. in the offseason and usually plays his season somewhere around 230 lbs. To go along with his great size is superb speed and agility for such a big outfielder.

Heyward is said to have great maturity for such a young player. He played the entire 2009 season at the age of 19 and was named minor league player of the year.

Most minor leaguers are willing to swing a bit more than they should, just because they want to impress and make a name for themselves. This is not the case for Heyward, who has posted great walk rates throughout his minor league career. He’s collected 105 walks in 1,003 plate appearances, good for a 10 percent walk rate, which is very impressive.

Heyward’s numbers in 2009 across three levels were outstanding. He finished off with a few at-bats at AAA but spent most of it at AA. His average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage for the entire season were a very imposing .323/.408/.555.

Along with that staggering line, Heyward hit seven homers, 25 doubles, and stole 10 out of 11 bases. For Heyward’s minor league career he has totaled 26 stolen bases in 31 attempts—the big guy can run the bases.

In the field, Heyward is a bit too big for center field, but he has the athleticism and talent to be a very successful defensive right fielder. His arm is plus, and his range is as well.

There are no glaring flaws in Heyward’s game. Coming into spring training the Braves have no set depth chart for right field. Heyward will be given every opportunity to win the job out of spring training, and it would be surprising, to say the least, if he does not come away with the starting gig in March.

Stephen Strasburg

Stephen Strasburg was the super prospect of last year, going No. 1 in the draft and signing a huge contract on the final day of signing eligibility. If the Nationals did not sign Strasburg last year, he would have been re-entered into the draft this year. Thankfully for the Nationals, Strasburg signed and is ready to begin his professional career.

Stephen’s size is admirable, just as Heyward’s is. He comes in at 6’4″ and 220, so you can see where Strasburg’s power comes from. Strasburg touches 100 mph with his fastball with as much regularity as any player currently in the major leagues. His slider sits around 90 mph, and his changeup, once presumed to be a subpar pitch, improved greatly during his time at the Arizona Fall League.

His performance at the AFL was uninspiring, but that was largely due to working heavily on his changeup. Strasburg has all of the talent in the world, and his former coach Tony Gwynn has previously stated that he could have been a major league pitcher last season while still in college.

Strasburg’s 2009 season at San Diego State University saw him go 13-1 with a 1.32 ERA. He allowed 16 earned runs, walked 19, and struck out 195 batters in only 109 innings pitched. He also was able to throw his first career no-hitter in May, solidifying his spot as the nation’s top pitcher and best college baseball player.

The Nationals have an amazing talent on their hands, and they would be wise to let him progress slowly. Many want Strasburg up as soon as possible, but patience with these types of players is the most sensible option.

Allowing him to advance through the system level by level will give him a better idea of what major league hitters will expect, and this will allow him to further develop his skills before reaching the major leagues.