Monday Podcast: Rays Series and Players Outperforming Expectations

There will be more on Glaus, Hinske, Hudson, and Wagner tomorrow on Talking Chop.

A Look at Some Braves’ Numbers 5/13: The Hinske Edition

Since last Wednesday, the Braves are 4-3 after losing the series finale against the Nationals, losing two out of three to the Phillies, and sweeping the Brewers in Miller Park.

During this stretch, the Braves run differential is 37-23. In their three game sweep of the Brewers, the Braves run differential was an astonishing 28-7.

Everything went right for the Braves in that series. They received solid pitching combined with the best hitting series of the year, a great recipe for success.

Eric Hinske has had three starts in the past seven games, all three coming in left field. The Braves record during the games in which Hinske has started is 3-0. In those three games, Hinske is batting .555/.667/1.000. He has had an extra base hit, gotten on base two times, and has gotten an RBI in each of the three games he has started.

It is becoming difficult to argue that Hinske should be starting in left field against right handed pitching. For the year, Hinske is batting .343/.425/.571 in 40 plate appearances against right handed pitching. He has six doubles and a triple to his credit as well.

In the past seven games, Troy Glaus has started to heat up as well. He now carries an eight game hitting steak and over his past seven he has hit .393/.452/.643, with two home runs and a double.

Since last weeks report, the Braves pitching staff has held an ERA of 3.46, and a starter’s ERA of 3.83.

The starting rotation was expected to be the biggest strength of this ballclub coming in to this season. With that said, the only pitcher with a K/BB ratio better than 2-1 is Tommy Hanson. In fact, Hanson’s is 46/13, even better than a 3-1 ratio.

Tim Hudson is sitting at a 17-18 K/BB, Derek Lowe is at 25-21, Kenshin Kawakami is at 16-10, and Jair Jurrjens is at 15-11. If the Braves rotation wants to have the same level of success as last year, more bats will have to be missed and more strikes will have to be thrown.

That’s it for this weeks update. These were mostly positive numbers, and hopefully next weeks will be even better.

The 6 Keys To Sending Bobby Cox Out On Top

This will be Bobby Cox’s 19 consecutive season as the Braves manager. Prior to this run, he was the general manager from 1986-1990, and he had previously managed the ball club for three seasons from 1978-1981.

Bobby Cox is possibly the most influential person in Braves’ history with Hank Aaron and John Schuerholz having pretty solid arguments themselves.

Cox has announced that this will be his last season, and you can bet that Chipper Jones will make sure this team plays every single game with the passion and fire that Cox deserves in his final summer as the manager.

The Braves took a major step forward last season as they won 86 games, their highest total since 2005 when they last won the division. In order for the Braves to send Bobby Cox out on top they need a few things to happen, and they are far from guarantees.

With that said, the talent on this roster is absolutely enough to get into post season baseball and the arms in the rotation are strong enough to carry a team through a short series.

Here are the six keys to sending Bobby Cox out on top, with his second World Series title as the Atlanta Braves’ manager.

Chipper Jones Bouncing Back

Chipper Jones is the most important hitter on this roster and he hits in the most important spot in the lineup. Chipper is a first ballot Hall of Famer and he needs to produce numbers closer to his career average in order for this offense to succeed.

Chipper does not need to have an MVP season or win the batting title for this offense to be good, but they do need him to give the team 20+ homers and a good on base percentage.

If Chipper is able to stay semi-healthy, play in 130+ games, and be productive in those games to the tune of a .290/.405/.485 triple slash line with 20 or more homers then this offense will score enough runs to support the strong starting staff.

There are enough decent to solid bats in the lineup to help Chipper out, but his production must improve for this team to have a chance to win a title.

Troy Glaus Remaining Relatively Healthy

As Jayson Stark mentioned earlier this week, the Braves are the only team in the league with a cleanup hitter and a closer who played less than 20 games last season.

Troy Glaus is the right handed power bat that the Braves have been searching for, but his health remains an issue. Glaus had shoulder surgery and missed nearly all of the 2009 season and has played 149 games only three times in the past seven seasons. He played in 91, 58, 115, and 14 in the other four seasons.

When Glaus plays, he is extremely productive and very powerful. From 2005-2008 Glaus averaged 35 home runs per 162 games played. If he plays 140 games this year, expecting around 27-33 home runs is absolutely attainable. The problem is that the if in the previous statement is far from a guarantee.

Glaus’ health is the reason that he was able to be had for so cheap, and if this offense wants to have a big right handed threat in the middle of the lineup then Glaus needs to be able to stay on the field.

Billy Wagner’s and Takashi Saito’s Arms Holding Up

The Braves two biggest acquisitions in the bullpen this offseason have a combined age of 78, and one appeared in only 15 games last season.

Billy Wagner was signed to close and Takashi Saito was signed to be a set-up man along side of Peter Moylan. The Braves bullpen was outstanding last year with the righty/lefty combo of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. In order for the bullpen to be as successful as last season, the elder statesmen of the back end must stay healthy.

Wagner has had no setbacks since his Tommy John surgery so another torn ligament to his left elbow is extremely doubtful. However, at the age of 38 (39 on July 25th) injuries can occur to nearly any body part as a professional athlete.

Saito has pitched at least 56 games in all but one season, but again, at age 40 anything can happen to a body or arm of an athlete. Saito was used in much less strenuous situations last year and his ability to handle high stress innings this season will be crucial to the bullpen’s success.

Both of them need to stay healthy. It is not as if the Braves do not have the ability to have others fill in as a closer or set up man. The problem comes when the middle relievers and Moylan have to move up and minor leaguers are brought up to fill the void in middle relief. The Braves have depth in the bullpen, but if Wagner and Saito remain healthy and productive they could have one of the top bullpens in the National League.

Jason Heyward Having a Productive Rookie Season

The top prospect in baseball, Jason Heyward, needs to be productive this season. The Braves have suffered from lack of production from their corner outfield spots (except from Matt Diaz, but he only plays against lefties) for a number of seasons.

Good offenses strive on the production they receive from the corner outfield and infield spots. The Braves need Heyward to have a solid season and start to become the player that everyone knows he will eventually be.

They do not need 30 home runs and a .330 average from Heyward, but a solid .360 on base percentage with 15-20 home runs will be a great improvement from what they have had in the seasons past. Heyward could be the spark this team needs to make and go deep into the playoffs.

Derek Lowe Becoming the Pitcher They Signed

Derek Lowe has completely changed is throwing motion. He has stated that he has changed his entire delivery from top to bottom.

“Arm angle, arm path, stride, knee, head, shoulder, elbow, height to my arm, we can go on all day long,” Lowe said. “There’s isn’t one thing I did last year, not one thing, which probably a lot of people are happy to hear.”

This new motion can help the Braves become one of the top teams in the NL. With Hanson, Hudson, and Jurrjens getting all of the love as they rightfully deserve, Lowe needs to prove that he is worth his $60 million contract he received before the 2009 season.

If they get the type of season that Lowe has the ability to have, then the Braves rotation will undoubtedly be one of the top two rotations in the National League along with the San Francisco Giants. The rotation is the Braves’ biggest strength, and a bounce back year for Lowe could put them over the top.

Eric Hinske Producing In Chipper’s and Glaus’ Absence

Lets face it, Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus will miss a good amount of games this season. They are both past their primes and both have had numerous injuries throughout their careers, especially as of late.

I mentioned before that Glaus needs to remain relatively healthy, and that Chipper needs to bounce back in order for this team to win. But even if they do produce, they will most likely suffer from nagging injuries throughout the season and be forced to miss some games.

Over the past few years the Braves have used middle infield production with the likes of Omar Infante and Martin Prado to fill the void left by Chipper Jones when he is injured. This season they have someone with power and a true corner infielder, Eric Hinske.

Hinske hit 20 home runs only two seasons ago in 2008. He has also been lucky enough to make the past three World Series with the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees respectively.

When Chipper or Glaus get injured the Braves need Hinske to mitigate the loss by hitting for power and getting on base. If Hinske can do this, and also prove to be an adequate pinch hitter and corner outfield option then the Braves offense will be very good.

Hinske will not light up the world, but Bobby Cox and the rest of the Braves nation are hoping that Hinske is able to make the World Series for the fourth straight time. He may not be the reason for getting to meaningful October baseball, but he can certainly help by producing in Chipper’s and Glaus’ absence.

Analyzing The Atlanta Braves’ Depth: http://bit.ly/9LNGFk

I posted a slideshow analyzing the Atlanta Braves depth on BleacherReport.com. Below is the introduction and a link to the BleacherReport.com article.

Depth is key to any team with legitimate playoff aspirations. The Phillies were able to win a world series with Matt Stairs having some key hits in there NLCS series against the Dodgers, and the Yankees benefited from having Brett Gardner running around the bases late in games last October.

One thing Bobby Cox has always managed to do with the Braves is maximize the potential of the Braves fringe starters and bench players. Willie Harris, Wilson Betemit, and Charles Thomas are a few players who were great with the Braves in limited roles and played pretty poorly with other teams.

This season the Braves have a number of position players who can move all around the diamond and this could be critical if the Braves hope to make the post-season for the first time since 2005. A long playoff drought is something that Braves fans have not come to expect out of the Atlanta franchise and in order to avoid another season of golf in October the Braves must get the most out of their high energy players.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/350966-analyzing-the-depth-of-the-atlanta-braves

Is Johnny Damon an Upgrade?

Currently, Johnny Damon is still unsigned and his market is continuing to drop. His price may eventually fall to the Braves’ supposed asking price of $2 million. My question is, is Johnny Damon at $2 million an upgrade over current options?

On its face, Damon’s 2009 season should make him a very valuable commodity. He set career highs in OPS+ at 126, isoSLG (The difference between his batting average and slugging percentage, demonstrating power numbers) at .207, and tied a career best with 24 home runs.

The problem with these numbers is that over the past three years his home and away statistics are separating more and more each season. As Damon has aged, he has used the short right porch in right field of Yankee Stadium to his advantage.

In 2007, his home OPS was .742 and away was .750, in 2008 his home OPS was .846 and away .827, and in 2009 his home OPS was .889 and away .776.

The dipping away OPS, along with his age, and -12.1 UZR/150 in left field last season makes it understandable why so many teams have been passing on Damon’s services.

The current options for left field are a Matt Diaz platoon with either Eric Hinske or Melky Cabrera, and possibly later in the season Jordan Schafer.

Hinske has similar career platoon statistics as Damon, and had 5.3 UZR/150 in the outfield last season—much better than Damon’s.

Cabrera was not on Damon’s level offensively last season, however, outside of Yankee Stadium the splits were not as vast as one would assume.

Cabrera’s .745 OPS in away games last year, coupled with his age (25), and his career 4.0 UZR/150 in left field make him just as serviceable in left field as Damon, in my opinion.

Lastly, unless Schafer proves to be a much better player than he was last season he is not a better option than Damon. However, if Jordan produces how he had before his injury last season and in his minor league seasons, then Jordan’s defense and offense would make him a very valuable and cheap option left field.

Outside of the current options, as previously stated Johnny Damon would cost at least $2 million. This would handcuff the Braves if they want to make a midseason trade as they did last season with Nate McLouth.

Johnny Damon was a crucial part of last year’s World Series champion New York Yankees, but Turner Field is not Yankee Stadium.

Maybe Damon can perform next year, but at the age of 36 moving into a bigger ballpark will severely decrease his overall value. The question still remains, is Johnny Damon at $2 million an upgrade over the Braves’ current options?