Chipper Jones Leaning Towards Retirement at Conclusion of Season

According to David O’Brien of the AJC, Chipper Jones is “likely leaning to retirement after 2010.” In my opinion, this is actually a pretty overblown statement. He is currently slumping, but if he gets out of it I would imagine he speaks out once again about possibly playing in 2011.

Jones is in the midst of a tough season, posting just 13 extra base hits in 208 at bats. He has still walked a decent amount, but he must understand that his swing just is not the same.

Bobby Cox retiring was on thing, but Chipper Jones leaving the franchise along side him is another. Many of us, including myself, grew up watching Chipper Jones manning third base and batting third for the Atlanta Braves and none of us will forget the type of player Chipper Jones has been. He has been the face of the Atlanta Braves offense since the mid-90′s.

One thing this does, is it gives Chipper the chance to get into the Hall-of-Fame with another former Braves great, John Smoltz. Ken Griffey Jr., who retired earlier this month, will also be included in the class. The Braves current closer , Billy Wagner, announced his retirement earlier this season as well and may also make the Hall-of-Fame but may have trouble getting in on his first try.

Chipper will also retire alongside Bobby Cox. In an age of free agency and coaching firings occurring rapidly, you almost never see a player play his entire career under one coach. Bobby and Chipper will always be linked together, and may be the last pair to accomplish this feat.

Jones will retire with a batting average over .300, an on base percentage over .400, and a slugging percentage over .500, an accomplishment only achieved by 14 other players in Major Leauge history. He won’t quite get to 500 home runs, but he has an MVP and a batting title to his name as well as more walks than strike outs.

This is a sad day for Braves nation, and hopefully he rescinds his remarks and waits until the end of the season to decide. He may be able to pick his bat back up by then, but then again he may continue to struggle. Regardless of whether this is the final decision, it is the decision for now. As a Braves follower as I’m sure you are if you are reading this, you must always remember and respect what Larry Wayne Jones Jr. meant to the Atlanta Braves.

Chipper Jones Has Been A Better Hitter Than Ken Griffey Jr.

The title of this article may seem preposterous to some. I don’t expect to sway many here, but I would not say this unless it was statistically backed.

And guess what? It is.

Ken Griffey Jr. retires with the fifth most home runs in the history of baseball. This is something Chipper will never approach. Although Chipper has hit his fare share of homers (429 to this point), he will never be known as the type of home run hitter that Griffey was known as and rightfully so.

Chipper, however has done more at the plate than hit homers. He has a superb eye and great bat control. These are two things he does better than Junior, and two things that mean a lot when determining a batter’s worth.

Here is my standpoint. A better hitter has a better wOBA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, and WAR. I am not cherry-picking stats to make my argument, if you look at any article I have ever written these are the stats I use, and they are the stats that are becoming accepted amongst the baseball world as they tell the entire story better than the older stats do.

Chipper Jones career numbers in those statistics:

.306 AVG, .406 OBP, .537 SLG, .403 wOBA, .943 OPS, 143 OPS+, 83.7 WAR

Kenn Griffey Jr’s numbers:

.284 AVG, .370 OBP, .538 SLG, .385 wOBA, .907 OPS, .135 OPS+, 85.4 WAR

I put average as well so you can understand that Griffey’s isoSLG is significantly better than Chipper’s. He hit for the same slugging percentage as Chipper over his career but hit for a much lower average, which shows how great of a power hitter Griffey truly was.

The only other stat that Griffey has the advantage in here is WAR. This is likely due to the fact that Griffey has 1,844 more plate appearances than Jones. That is pretty much three seasons worth of plate appearances. I am fairly confident that in three seasons, Chipper could produce enough to catch-up to him, after all the difference in WAR is only 1.7 — Chipper may even surpass him this season.

The difference between Griffey and Chipper is the ability to get on base. Chipper has had better bat control and a better eye. His walk rate trumps Griffey’s significantly and his ability to get a hit does as well.

People would like to say something about injuries at this point, but mind you Chipper has faced his fare share as well. Jones has played some of his best ball in his mid to late 30′s but has been disabled frequently, which has deterred fans from recognizing how great he was has been late in his career.

The next argument against my case would be that at Griffey’s best, he was easily better than Jones. So lets take a look at their best full seasons (140 games or more)

Chipper’s best:

45 HR, .319 AVG, .441 OBP, .633 SLG, .453 wOBA, 1.074 OPS, .168 OPS+, 7.7 WAR

Griffey’s best:

45 HR, .309 AVG, .408 OBP, .617 SLG, .430 wOBA, 1.025 OPS, 171 OPS+ 9.0 WAR

The numbers are close, and the WAR and OPS+ going to Griffey mean a lot, especially when you consider that OPS+ takes into account park factor.

When you look at the numbers though, Chipper got on more frequently. Outside of that, they hit the same amount of homers and for that matter the same amount of extra base hits as well — 87 for both. If two players have the same amount of home runs and extra base hits but one gets on base more, who would you pick? I think that answers itself. The park factor sways it in favor of Griffey at that point. But regardless, on base percentage does mean more than slugging and Chipper has him beat in the one stat that weighs them together properly, wOBA. I would basically call their two best overall seasons a wash.

The years are nearly identical in terms of overall production. So would you say that, without a doubt, Griffey was better than Chipper? I won’t necessarily say Chipper was better either,

Griffey has had two more dominant years in 1996 (.427 wOBA) and 1997 (.424 wOBA) when playing 140 or more games in a year, whereas Chipper only had one in 2001 (.423 wOBA).

During their “prime” the two are pretty close. With the argument about Griffey being clearly better than Chipper in their prime nixed, there is no choice but to look at the career rate statistics.

When looking at those, it is clear that Chipper Jones got the job done at the plate at a better rate than Ken Griffey Jr.

Griffey is a sure fire first ballot Hall-of-Famer and will go down as one of the top overall players to ever play the game. His defense easily trumps anything Chipper has ever done defensively, but my point was to make evident of the fact that Chipper was indeed better at the plate.

Chipper has never had the hype or the notoriety that Griffey has had. He has had no video games and his name is not nearly as popular as “The Kid’s.” Whether that makes Chipper a bit underrated in terms of his production or Griffey a bit overrated is a grey subject.

Chipper will make the hall as well, but many won’t ever realize that he was a better overall hitter than Griffey.

Many believe that neither have used performance enhancers, which speaks about both player’s character and skills on the ball field. They played the game the right way throughout an era that will forever be known as “The Steroid Era,” and the fact that they managed to stay clean and produce Hall-of-Fame numbers is simply phenomenal. Hopefully, when Chipper gets elected, many will look at his numbers and understand that he should be considered one of the top third basemen of all time and one of the best clean hitters to play in this generation.

Atlanta Braves’ Infield Defense Will Be Tested in 2010

Javier Vazquez struck out 239 batters in 2010, second in the National League. Vazquez actually struck out more batters than the number of grounders he forced, 237.

Javier was the definition of a big-time strikeout pitcher last year, and this takes a lot of pressure off a defense.

The man replacing him in the rotation this year, Tim Hudson, is a notorious ground ball pitcher. Hudson has had four seasons in which he forced 400 or more ground balls, and his season high for strikeouts with the Braves is 141.

In addition to Hudson’s low strikeout totals, he is also third on the active list on home runs per nine innings, at .717, and he is 39th on the active list for walks per nine at 2.8.

In Hudson’s three full seasons with the Braves, he finished in the top seven in ground ball percentage each year. He is and always has been a contact pitcher; this should not be news to anyone.

Needless to say, the defense will have a bit more responsibility this year with Vazquez in New York and Hudson on the mound.

Hudson is not the only contact pitcher on the team either. The stress on the defense with Derek Lowe, second highest ground ball percentage in ’09, and Jair Jurrjens, who posted the seventh highest ground ball percentage in ’08, will be great this year.

There is a very good chance that three Atlanta starters who should pitch right around 200 innings finish in the top 15 in ground ball percentage this year. That should lead to a very active infield, probably the most active in the league.

The problem with this is that the Atlanta Braves’ infield features a 38-year-old at third base, a first baseman with six major league games on that side of the infield, and a second baseman with a -15.2 UZR/150 after 101 games at that position.

Chipper Jones had a solid defensive year in 2008 but was dismal in the field last year, as he finished with a -11.6 UZR/150 and a career-low fielding percentage of .930. Expecting him to find the fountain of youth and improve his defense this year would be a reach. He will likely be pretty bad defensively this year again.

Troy Glaus has always had rather soft hands, and he has not been too far from an average third baseman defensively throughout his career. The transition to first base has gone well so far, but the Braves will not have the luxury of having a top-notch glove like Casey Kotchman’s or Mark Teixeira’s to start the season out this year.

Martin Prado has played at least 45 games at three infield positions throughout his career, but his defense at second base has been his worst. He has been increasingly better though, as he finished with just a -3.6 UZR/150 last year, which is not too far off being an average defensive second basemen.

Yunel Escobar is the strength of this defense. His career UZR/150 is almost dead average at -0.1, but his arm strength and glove work have been phenomenal since his arrival in Atlanta. He will have the opportunity this season to prove that he is the best defensive shortstop in the league as the Braves will likely force the most grounders in 2010.

With Jurrjens, Lowe, and Hudson being such ground ball threats, these players need to seriously step their games up if they want to have a successful season. Swapping 237 grounders and 239 strikeouts for roughly 400 grounders and 130 strikeouts will seriously test this infield throughout the season. Do you think they pass the test?

The 6 Keys To Sending Bobby Cox Out On Top

This will be Bobby Cox’s 19 consecutive season as the Braves manager. Prior to this run, he was the general manager from 1986-1990, and he had previously managed the ball club for three seasons from 1978-1981.

Bobby Cox is possibly the most influential person in Braves’ history with Hank Aaron and John Schuerholz having pretty solid arguments themselves.

Cox has announced that this will be his last season, and you can bet that Chipper Jones will make sure this team plays every single game with the passion and fire that Cox deserves in his final summer as the manager.

The Braves took a major step forward last season as they won 86 games, their highest total since 2005 when they last won the division. In order for the Braves to send Bobby Cox out on top they need a few things to happen, and they are far from guarantees.

With that said, the talent on this roster is absolutely enough to get into post season baseball and the arms in the rotation are strong enough to carry a team through a short series.

Here are the six keys to sending Bobby Cox out on top, with his second World Series title as the Atlanta Braves’ manager.

Chipper Jones Bouncing Back

Chipper Jones is the most important hitter on this roster and he hits in the most important spot in the lineup. Chipper is a first ballot Hall of Famer and he needs to produce numbers closer to his career average in order for this offense to succeed.

Chipper does not need to have an MVP season or win the batting title for this offense to be good, but they do need him to give the team 20+ homers and a good on base percentage.

If Chipper is able to stay semi-healthy, play in 130+ games, and be productive in those games to the tune of a .290/.405/.485 triple slash line with 20 or more homers then this offense will score enough runs to support the strong starting staff.

There are enough decent to solid bats in the lineup to help Chipper out, but his production must improve for this team to have a chance to win a title.

Troy Glaus Remaining Relatively Healthy

As Jayson Stark mentioned earlier this week, the Braves are the only team in the league with a cleanup hitter and a closer who played less than 20 games last season.

Troy Glaus is the right handed power bat that the Braves have been searching for, but his health remains an issue. Glaus had shoulder surgery and missed nearly all of the 2009 season and has played 149 games only three times in the past seven seasons. He played in 91, 58, 115, and 14 in the other four seasons.

When Glaus plays, he is extremely productive and very powerful. From 2005-2008 Glaus averaged 35 home runs per 162 games played. If he plays 140 games this year, expecting around 27-33 home runs is absolutely attainable. The problem is that the if in the previous statement is far from a guarantee.

Glaus’ health is the reason that he was able to be had for so cheap, and if this offense wants to have a big right handed threat in the middle of the lineup then Glaus needs to be able to stay on the field.

Billy Wagner’s and Takashi Saito’s Arms Holding Up

The Braves two biggest acquisitions in the bullpen this offseason have a combined age of 78, and one appeared in only 15 games last season.

Billy Wagner was signed to close and Takashi Saito was signed to be a set-up man along side of Peter Moylan. The Braves bullpen was outstanding last year with the righty/lefty combo of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez. In order for the bullpen to be as successful as last season, the elder statesmen of the back end must stay healthy.

Wagner has had no setbacks since his Tommy John surgery so another torn ligament to his left elbow is extremely doubtful. However, at the age of 38 (39 on July 25th) injuries can occur to nearly any body part as a professional athlete.

Saito has pitched at least 56 games in all but one season, but again, at age 40 anything can happen to a body or arm of an athlete. Saito was used in much less strenuous situations last year and his ability to handle high stress innings this season will be crucial to the bullpen’s success.

Both of them need to stay healthy. It is not as if the Braves do not have the ability to have others fill in as a closer or set up man. The problem comes when the middle relievers and Moylan have to move up and minor leaguers are brought up to fill the void in middle relief. The Braves have depth in the bullpen, but if Wagner and Saito remain healthy and productive they could have one of the top bullpens in the National League.

Jason Heyward Having a Productive Rookie Season

The top prospect in baseball, Jason Heyward, needs to be productive this season. The Braves have suffered from lack of production from their corner outfield spots (except from Matt Diaz, but he only plays against lefties) for a number of seasons.

Good offenses strive on the production they receive from the corner outfield and infield spots. The Braves need Heyward to have a solid season and start to become the player that everyone knows he will eventually be.

They do not need 30 home runs and a .330 average from Heyward, but a solid .360 on base percentage with 15-20 home runs will be a great improvement from what they have had in the seasons past. Heyward could be the spark this team needs to make and go deep into the playoffs.

Derek Lowe Becoming the Pitcher They Signed

Derek Lowe has completely changed is throwing motion. He has stated that he has changed his entire delivery from top to bottom.

“Arm angle, arm path, stride, knee, head, shoulder, elbow, height to my arm, we can go on all day long,” Lowe said. “There’s isn’t one thing I did last year, not one thing, which probably a lot of people are happy to hear.”

This new motion can help the Braves become one of the top teams in the NL. With Hanson, Hudson, and Jurrjens getting all of the love as they rightfully deserve, Lowe needs to prove that he is worth his $60 million contract he received before the 2009 season.

If they get the type of season that Lowe has the ability to have, then the Braves rotation will undoubtedly be one of the top two rotations in the National League along with the San Francisco Giants. The rotation is the Braves’ biggest strength, and a bounce back year for Lowe could put them over the top.

Eric Hinske Producing In Chipper’s and Glaus’ Absence

Lets face it, Chipper Jones and Troy Glaus will miss a good amount of games this season. They are both past their primes and both have had numerous injuries throughout their careers, especially as of late.

I mentioned before that Glaus needs to remain relatively healthy, and that Chipper needs to bounce back in order for this team to win. But even if they do produce, they will most likely suffer from nagging injuries throughout the season and be forced to miss some games.

Over the past few years the Braves have used middle infield production with the likes of Omar Infante and Martin Prado to fill the void left by Chipper Jones when he is injured. This season they have someone with power and a true corner infielder, Eric Hinske.

Hinske hit 20 home runs only two seasons ago in 2008. He has also been lucky enough to make the past three World Series with the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees respectively.

When Chipper or Glaus get injured the Braves need Hinske to mitigate the loss by hitting for power and getting on base. If Hinske can do this, and also prove to be an adequate pinch hitter and corner outfield option then the Braves offense will be very good.

Hinske will not light up the world, but Bobby Cox and the rest of the Braves nation are hoping that Hinske is able to make the World Series for the fourth straight time. He may not be the reason for getting to meaningful October baseball, but he can certainly help by producing in Chipper’s and Glaus’ absence.

Trading Anderson and Extending Chipper

Josh Anderson: Last night the Braves determined that Jordan Schafer would be the starting center fielder and traded Josh Anderson. Anderson had no options but was expendable due to Schafer and Gregor Blanco. The Braves also have Gorkys Hernandez in the lower levels to fill out the center field depth chart. This was absolutely the move that the Braves needed to make. Jordan Schafer proved to the Braves that he was ready both offensively and defensively. Schafer is in the mold of Grady Sizemore and while he may not perform to those expectations this year, getting him 500 at bats this season gives him the opportunity to eventually reach that potential. The outfield situation has so many question marks but if Schafer is able to be as productive as he was this Spring and Anderson and Francoeur are able to be solid corner outfielders our lineup looks surprisingly strong.

Chipper Jones: Jones was extended until 2012 for roughly $40 million with a team option for 2013. This could keep Jones under contract until his 41st birthday. On one side you have to be happy that Chipper will be a Brave for his entire career but on the other you have to question giving that type of contract to a player who averages 126 games in the past 5 seasons. Chipper will always be productive when he is healthy, but the older he gets the more injury prone he will be. Expect him to play less and less games each season and for this contract to eventually be a hindrance to the franchise.